Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are currently 1/4 to 1 3/4 lower after ending Wednesday with most contracts 2 to 3 1/2 cents lower. The weekly EIA report indicated ethanol production down 4,000 barrels per day at 1.024 bpd for the week of 3/1. Ethanol stocks were a bearish 24.261 million, up 552,000 barrels wk/wk and the second largest on record. Delayed Census trade data from December showed exports of 4.345 MMT (171.06 mbu) of corn in that month. That was down 14.88% from November but 22.1% larger than last year. Exports this MY (through Dec) were 803 mbu and up 64.5% from last year. Ethanol exports totaled 139.78 mgal, with DDGs at 890,491 MT (smallest since Feb 2018). The full year DDG exports were the largest since 2015, and the 2018 ethanol exports were record large. Mexico is contemplating implementing new tariffs on US corn and poultry imports, because the US tariffs on Mexican steel are still in place. Trade estimates range from 0.7-1.1 MMT in old crop corn export bookings for the week of 2/28, with new crop at 100,000-300,000.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are trading 3 to 4 cents per bushel higher this morning. They posted losses of 11 to 12 cents in the front months on Wednesday. Meal futures are $3.80/ton lower in the nearby contract, with soy oil down 22 points. This morning’s Export Sales report for the week of 2/28 is expected to show 0.6-1 MMT in 18/19 soybean sales, with 0-150,000 MT for 19/20. Census data released yesterday indicated that 4.105 MMT (150.86 mbu) of US soybeans were shipped in December. That was a drop of 19% from Nov and 34% below last year. Soy meal exports were 1.082 MMT, a slight bump from Dec 2017. BR-163, the main highway toward the Amazon ports in Brazil is currently closed, with estimates of 3000-5000 trucks prevented from reaching export ports.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are mostly 5 to 7 cents per bushel lower this morning in the Chicago and KC contracts. MPLS spring wheat is down 1/2 to 1 1/2 but supported by concerns about spring planting progress. They closed the Wednesday session with most winter wheat contracts 8 to 13 3/4 cents lower, and MPLS down 2 to 3 1/2 cents. US FOB prices were above French ~$5/ton on Tuesday afternoon, an input in the sell off. Analysts expect this morning’s Export Sales report to show all wheat sales of 200,000-500,000 MT in the final week of February. Monthly trade data from Census (still delayed by the shutdown) indicated that wheat exports in December totaled 2.237 MMT (82.2 mbu). That was the most since Sep 2017 and 12.84% above a year ago. The average trade estimate for 18/19 wheat ending stocks in Friday’s WASDE report is 1.020 bbu, which would be up 10 mbu from last month.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures were mostly lower on Wednesday, with April up 7.5 cents. Feeder cattle futures were down 22.5 cents to $1.05. The CME feeder cattle index was down 4 cents on March 5 at $139.59. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Wednesday afternoon with the Ch/Select spread at $6.56. Choice boxes were up 89 cents at $224.93 with Select 58 cents higher at $218.37. USDA has week to date FI cattle slaughter at 350,000 head. That is down 1,000 head from the previous week but 1,000 head above the same week in 2018. The weekly FCE online auction saw most lots offered at $128 and no bids. Live bids of $205 were being seen in NE later on Wednesday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures saw 32.5 to 82.5 cent losses in most contracts on Wednesday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up a penny from the previous day @ $51.94 on March 4. Futures have been anticipating an upturn in cash for several days. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 47 cents on Wednesday afternoon at an average weighted price of $63.06. The national base hog carcass value was up 33 cents in Wednesday’s PM report at a weighted average of $44.89. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter through Wednesday at 1.42 million head. That was well above the previous week and 67,000 head larger than last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are trading 11 to 38 points lower this morning. They ended the Wednesday session with most contract down 23 to 40 points. The March contract expires today. The US dollar index is stronger for the 6th day in a row. December cotton exports were tallied at 975,814 bales according to delayed Census data. That was up 43.22% from November, which is seasonal, but down 30% from a year ago. The weekly Export Sales report will be released on Thursday morning. The Cotlook A Index was down 75 points on March 5 to 81.15 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) is 62.67 cents/ lb, effective through Thursday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
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E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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