Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures ended Wednesday with most contracts 2 to 3 1/2 cents lower. The weekly EIA report indicated ethanol production down 4,000 barrels per day at 1.024 bpd for the week of 3/1. Ethanol stocks were seen at 24.261 million, up 552,000 barrels wk/wk and the second largest on record. Delayed Census trade data from December showed exports of 4.345 MMT (171.06 mbu) of corn in that month. That was down 14.88% from November but 22.1% larger than last year. Exports this MY (through Dec) were 803 mbu and up 64.5% from last year. Ethanol exports totaled 139.78 mgal, with DDGs at 890,491 MMT. Mexico is contemplating implementing new tariffs on US corn and poultry imports, because the US tariffs on Mexican steel are still in place. Trade estimates range from 0.7-1.1 MMT in old crop corn bookings for the week of 2/28, with new crop at 100,000-300,000.

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.62 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents,

May 19 Corn closed at $3.72 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents,

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.81, down 3 1/2 cents

Sep 19 Corn closed at $3.87 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures posted losses of 11 to 12 cents in the front months on Wednesday. Meal futures are $3.80/ton lower in the nearby contract, with soy oil down 22 points. The market is still looking for that missing 10 MMT of Chinese purchases mentioned by Secretary Sonny. Thursday morning’s Export Sales report for the week of 2/28 is expected to show 0.6-1 MMT in 18/19 soybean sales, with 0-150,000 MT for 19/20. Actual Census data released this morning indicated that 4.105 MMT (150.86 mbu) of US soybeans were shipped in December. That was a drop of 19% from Nov and still 34% below last year. Soy meal exports were at 1.082 MMT, a slight bump from Dec 2017. BR-163, the main highway toward the Amazon ports in Brazil is currently closed due to flooding with estimates of 3000-5000 trucks prevented from reaching export ports.

Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $8.89 3/4, down 11 1/2 cents,

May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.02, down 11 3/4 cents,

Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.15 3/4, down 12 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans closed at $9.27, down 11 1/2 cents,

Mar 19 Soybean Meal closed at $301.80, down $3.80,

Mar 19 Soybean Oil closed at $29.51, down $0.22

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures closed the Wednesday session with most winter wheat contracts 8 to 13 3/4 cents lower, and MPLS down 2 to 3 1/2 cents. US FOB prices were above French ~$5/ton on Tuesday afternoon, an input in today’s sell off. Analysts expect Thursday morning’s Export Sales report to show all wheat sales of 200,000-500,000 MT in the final week of February. Monthly trade data from Census (still delayed by the shutdown) indicated that 2.237 MMT (82.2 mbu) of all wheat was exported in December. That was the most since Sep 2017 and 12.84% above a year ago. The average trade estimate for 18/19 wheat ending stocks prior to this week’s WASDE report is 1.020 bbu, which would be up 10 mbu from last month.

May 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.50, down 12 3/4 cents,

May 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.38 1/2, down 12 3/4 cents,

May 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.53, down 2 1/2 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures were mostly lower on Wednesday, with April up 7.5 cents. Feeder cattle futures were down 22.5 cents to $1.05. The CME feeder cattle index was down 4 cents on March 5 at $139.59. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Wednesday afternoon with the Ch/Select spread at $6.56. Choice boxes were up 89 cents at $224.93 with Select 58 cents higher at $218.37. USDA estimated this week’s FI cattle slaughter at 350,000 head through Wednesday. That is down 1,000 head from the previous week but 1,000 head above the same week in 2018. Today’s FCE online auction saw all 300 head go unsold, with most lots offered at $128 and no bids. Live bids of $205 were being seen in NE at midday.

Apr 19 Cattle closed at $128.900, up $0.075,

Jun 19 Cattle closed at $119.625, down $0.225,

Aug 19 Cattle closed at $115.600, down $0.150,

Mar 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $140.650, down $0.225

Apr 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.650, down $0.750

May 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.425, down $0.900

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures saw 32.5 to 82.5 cent losses in most contracts on Wednesday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up a penny from the previous day @ $51.94 on March 4. Futures have been anticipating an upturn in cash for several days. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 47 cents on Wednesday afternoon at an average weighted price of $63.06. The national base hog carcass value was up 33 cents in Wednesday’s PM report at a weighted average of $44.89. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter through Wednesday at 1.42 million head. That was well above the previous week and 67,000 head larger than last year.

Apr 19 Hogs closed at $57.075, down $0.825,

May 19 Hogs closed at $66.000, down $0.400

Jun 19 Hogs closed at $75.750, down $0.550

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures ended the Wednesday session with most contract down 23 to 40 points. March expires on Thursday. December cotton exports were tallied at 975,814 bales according to delayed Census data. That was up 43.22% from November, which is seasonal, but down 30% from a year ago. The weekly Export Sales report will be released on Thursday morning. The Cotlook A Index was down 75 points on March 5 to 81.15 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) is 62.67 cents/ lb, effective through Thursday.

Mar 19 Cotton closed at 73.050, down 40 points,

May 19 Cotton closed at 74.210, down 40 points

Jul 19 Cotton closed at 75.220, down 23 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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