Ag Market Commentary

Tuesday action today starts with some gains, corn is up by 1/2 to 1 3/4 in the front months. Brazilian Export Data from the month of November shows that the country exported less corn than October with a 1.783 MMT reduction to 4.2883 MMT of Nov corn shipments. Last year the country shipped 3.646 MMT in November. Brazil also exported less ethanol mo/mo, but more yr/yr. Brazil shipped 181.1 mln L (1.139 mln barrels). South Korea bought 65,000 MT of corn in a private sale on Friday. The CAIR Grain crush report showed that there were 436.780 mbu crushed in October, which was 7.7% higher than September, but was 5.43% drop in crushings over last October. The USDA weekly Crop Progress report yesterday showed corn harvest now 89% completed. We would typically be 98% complete by December 1. The delayed CFTC report showed that as of Tuesday 11/26, managed money was still net short 116,072 contracts of corn, with the position becoming less short by 7,458 contracts wk/wk. There were again zero deliveries against December futures overnight.

DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.74 1/4, up 3/4 cent,

MAR 19 Corn closed at $3.82 1/2, up 1/2 cent,

MAY 20 Corn closed at $3.88, up 1 1/2 cents

JUL 20 Corn closed at $3.92, up 1 3/4 cents

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans are higher by 1 to 1 1/4 cents so far, pulling meal up to a $1.20/ton gain. So far bean oil futures are also up, by 16 points. The CAIR Fats and Oils monthly report showed that October bean usage was 187.165 mbu. That was the highest oilseed crush for a single month going back to May of 2015. Crude bean oil on hand was up 71.360 million lbs. from September. Brazil’s official export data for November showed that the country exported 5.158 MMT through the month. That about matches (-700 MT) their October shipments, but is 7.06% ahead of Nov 2018. Soy meal was shown 0.22 MMT lower than their October shipments. Analysts polled believe that Brazil’s soybean crop size will be revised up, the average expectation for the 19/20 crop is 122.7 MMT which would be a 6.7% hike from the government’s last update. American bean harvest progressed to 96% completed. The Commitment of Traders report on Monday revealed that managed money spec funds were now net short in soybeans.

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $8.71 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents,

MAR 19 Soybeans closed at $8.86 1/4, up 1 cent,

MAY 20 Soybeans closed at $9.01 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents,

JUL 20 Soybeans closed at $9.14 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal closed at $292.50, up $1.20,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil closed at $30.12, up $0.16

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

This morning we see Chicago Dec wheat futures falling 9 3/4 cents. Close behind are the KC wheat futures, lower by 5 3/4 cents at midday. MGE wheat futures are steady so far. Thailand issued an international tender for 120,000 MT of feed wheat. Japan has issued a regular wheat weekly tender, the country is looking for 160,640 MT of wheat with March delivery. Egypt purchased 295,000 MT of Russian wheat in their tender. The CFTC report showed that managed money had again reverted back to net long for CBOT wheat futures, managed money was net short for KC wheat and for MPLS wheat futures.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.33 1/2, down 9 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.31 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.89 1/2, unch,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures dropped a little more this morning, the futures are lower by 15 to 35 cents at midday. Feeder cattle futures see a midday bounce, they are up by as much as 72 cents in the front months. The 11/29 CME Feeder Cattle index was up 35 cents at $144.97. Official Brazilian exports show beef shipments of 155,600 MT for Nov, which is down from October shipments, but they exported 19.23% more than November a year ago. Morning boxed beef prices were mixed to tighten the Chc/Sel spread to $17.38. Choice boxes were $1.33 lower, and select boxes were up by $0.92. Tomorrow’s FCE online cattle auction will host 1,189 head, 827 from NE 230 head from KS and TX offering 142 head. Cash cattle activity has been light recently, the USDA has reported some 80% choice dressed sales of $187.00, and live from sales $116 - $119. USDA estimated the FI cattle slaughter to start the week with 117,000 head.

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $120.600, down $0.150,

FEB 19 Cattle closed at $125.450, down $0.350,

APR 20 Cattle closed at $126.050, down $0.150,

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.875, up $0.725

MAR 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.225, up $0.200

APR 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.225, up $0.250

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog futures are trying to regain yesterday’s losses, up by as much as $1.52 at midday. The 11/29 CME Lean Hog Index was $57.35 after dropping a full dollar. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $81.48 after a $1.38 reduction, the belly was $8.86 lower. USDA’s national average base hog price for 12/03 was another 30 cents higher at $43.84. A Chinese Ag Ministry official claimed that “Pork inventories are relatively ample for the 4th quarter”. Emphasis on relatively! Official export data from Brazil showed pork shipments for the month of November were 57,600MT. That is 7.84% lower mo/mo, but 12.94% above November of ’18. The CFTC showed that funds were net short lean hog futures for the first time since March 3rd. Managed money was 860 contracts net short as of 11/26. USDA estimated FI hog slaughter to start the week with a new record of 497,000 head, beating the previous daily slaughter record set from Tuesday the 19th of Nov (494k head).

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $61.400, up $1.050,

FEB 19 Hogs closed at $67.675, up $1.525

APR 20 Hogs closed at $73.775, up $1.200

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are another 61 to 64 points lower, after having been lower by 14 to 50 points yesterday. The monthly Cotton System utilization report from NASS showed that 1,283 running bales of cotton were consumed through October. That comes as an increase of 1.6% over last month, and a 26.4% drop from October 2018. The yearly average is now 1,636.3 RBs, which would be the lowest yearly average in at least 5 years. Cotton harvest, per the USDA weekly crop progress report, advanced to 83% completed. The four year average for the week ending 12-01 is 81%, and last year harvest was 74% complete through the same point. LA is 100% complete with AR and MS close behind at 97 and 99% respectively. The Dec 2 Cotlook A Index was 45 points lower at 74.55 cents per pound. The AWP is 56.20 cents /lb.

MAR 19 Cotton closed at 64.16, down 64 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 65.27, down 64 points

JUL 20 Cotton closed at 66.25, down 61 points

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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