Corn - Just My Opinion

Weekly Corn Export Inspections 421.8 K T. vs. 400-700 K T. expected

Weekly Corn Crop Condition & Progress - 55% GE (unch) vs. 54% expected vs. 69% year ago Dough Stage - 93% vs. 98% 5-year average Dented - 68% vs. 87% 5-year average Mature - 18% vs. 39% 5-year average Harvested - 4% vs. 4% expected vs. 7% 5-year average

Flat price corn starts higher Sunday night on the coattails of the sharply higher crude oil market. The balance of the night session was spent backing and filling the initial rally. The day session brings us a resumption of buying sparked by the WHs proposal to further boost the bio-fuel mandate for 2020 beyond what was proposed last week. The new proposal would mandate bio-fuel blending up to 22.4 billion gallons. Adding to the days buying is the idea that the corn crop is not quite as healthy as last weeks USDA production numbers may have suggested. For what it is worth crop conditions are expected to fade further on this afternoons condition report. Additionally this afternoons progress report will act as a reminder as to just how late the crop is this year. Offsetting some of that is the lack of any frost/freeze in the forecasts.

Interior cash corn markets (basis) are steady to easier. The thought is that the recent rally is attracting some movement; Im not sure all that much is moving. The Gulf basis is steady to slightly softer at its midday posting. Corn spreads did a show a friendlier bias. Im thinking the friendlier bias is due to speculator short covering. Weekly export inspections came in at the low end of expectations.

Corn flat price charts look strong suggesting the next upside target is something closer to the $3.80 level (Dec). If we can get prices through that level (with conviction) then well look at the August 12th -13th gap, $3.88 to $3.92 . Support for the time being is the mid to low $3.60s.

Daily Support & Resistance for 09/17

Dec Corn: $3.70 - $3.80

March Corn: $3.82 $3.92

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Contact me! Tom Fritz, Agricultural Market Analyst at 1.800.786.4475.

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