Top Farmer Midday Update 9-16-19

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher this morning with Dec up 2-3/4 to 3.71-1/2, Mar is up 2-1/2 cents to 3.84, and May corn is up 2-1/4 to 3.92-3/4. Corn is finding some outside market support with crude oil futures trading with more than 5.00 gains this morning. Weather is bearish with 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day forecasts showing above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. U.S. bio fuel credits jumped 10% on Friday with the industry expecting a bio fuel reform deal. Much of today's buying is also technical in nature with a bullish outside day last Thursday and follow through on Friday. Corn markets posted bullish key reversals on the weekly charts, an impressive sign. The U.S. shipped 422,000 tons of corn for the week ending September 12 vs 612,000 tons the previous week and 1.05 mil tons for the same week last year. Cumulative corn shipments for this marketing year have reached 894,000 tons vs 1.72 mil tons at the same time last year. Speculative funds were thought to have bought 1,000 contracts of corn on Friday.

SOYBEANS

Soybean markets have been choppy today with Nov down 1-1/2 to 8.97-1/4, Jan beans are down 1-1/4 to 9.11 and Mar beans are down 1/2 of a cent to 9.23-1/2. Soybean oil prices caught a big boost overnight due to the jump in energy prices. Near term weather looks bearish for soybean prices with no signs yest of an early freeze, though U.S./China trade relations appear to be supportive at this time. Last week's Supply and Demand report was supportive and pushed beans to make an outside week higher close. The drop in yield was especially supportive due to the fact that it was calculated using the highest pod weight in 10 years, which many considered to be optimistic. Soybean prices today have been choppy with Nov trading as high as 9.04-3/4, and as low as 8.94-1/4. Soybeans are overbought according to both stochastics and bollinger bands, but the trend does look to be higher. The U.S. shipped 666,000 tons of beans for the week ending September 12 vs 978,000 tons the previous week, and 787,000 tons the same week last year. Cumulative shipments for this marketing year are sitting at 1.24 mil tons vs 1.6 mil tons at the same time last year. Speculative funds were thought to have bought about 5,000 contracts on Friday.

WHEAT

Wheat markets are finding more buyers this morning with Dec Chi wheat up 4 cents to 4.87-1/2, Dec KC wheat is up 6-1/2 cents to 4.06-1/4, and Dec spring wheat is up 2-1/2 cents to 5.08. Dryness concerns in Argentina and moisture concerns in Brazil are supportive, though last week's Supply and Demand report confirmed record global wheat supplies. Friday's hook reversal in all three winter wheat markets was disappointing as prices ran into stiff resistance. Wheat futures are trading higher today, but have still yet to break through Friday's highs or these resistance levels. The U.S. shipped 459,000 tons of wheat for the week ending September 12 vs 413,000 tons the previous week, and 411,000 tons for the same week last year. Cumulative shipments are currently at 7.47 mil tons vs 6.12 mil tons for the same week last year. Speculative funds were thought to have sold 1,000 contracts of wheat on Friday.

CATTLE

Cattle markets are mixed this morning with Oct lives up 15 cents to 98.22, Dec lives are up 2 cents to 104.40, and Feb lives are steady at 111.10. Sep feeders are up 12 cents to 136.62, and Oct feeders are up 5 cents to 134.62. Trade has been choppy today with traders caught between two beef products, but also a very current marketing pace, and steady weights contrary to seasonal trends. Traders are also worried that cheap corn and cheap feeder cattle could encourage active placements in the coming months, but at the moment, cattle markts look cheap. The best traded Dec live cattle contract held its 20-day moving average support level so far today, though there has been no clear direction for the day's trade. Oct feeders are approaching overbought levels and may be starting to drift lower, but momentum indicators are still pointing mostly sideways.

HOGS

Hog markets are choppy this morning with Oct down 1.67 to 64.80, Dec hogs are down 12 cents to 68.57, and Feb hogs are up 20 cents to 75.30. China's hog herd in Aug was down 38.7% from last year, an enormous number, and despite China pealing tariffs off of U.S. pork products recently, the expectation for increased exports has not given much support to the pork product prices, currently their lowest level since March. Oct hogs set back early this morning, but were able to hold onto their 20-day moving average support level and rebound. Dec hogs are overbought, but have tested and held their 50-day moving average support level. Traders will be watching export markets very closely to see if the U.S. is beginning to fill some of China's pork needs.




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