Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 2 to 3 cents higher this morning on some bargain hunting. They were down 10 to 19 1/4 cents in the front months on Tuesday. Monday’s WASDE report showed reduced estimated corn FSI (from ethanol) use by 25 mbu in both 18/19 and 19/20. That, along with a 100 mbu reduction for 19/20 exports, contributed to an increase in both old and new ending stock estimates. Monday’s crop ratings by state saw IL down 2 points on the Brugler500 scale, with IN 10 lower and IA down 3. Ratings in NE (+7), MO (+4), and SD (+1) were all reported higher. Parts of the WCB are expected to receive significant rainfall over the next 7 days while the ECB sees more limited quantities. --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures are trading 2 to 3 cents lower after gains yesterday. They closed 9 to 10 1/2 cents higher on Turnaround Tuesday. August soybean meal was up $5.70/ton, with soy oil 47 points lower. The monthly WASDE balance sheet update saw a 20 mbu reduction to the soybean crush estimate for old crop. Besides the smaller production, new crop saw a 100 mbu drop to projected exports at 1.775 bbu, as carryout was still down 40 mbu. On the world side, WAOB cut 2 MMT from China’s projected imports to 83 MMT for 18/19 and 875 MMT for 19/20. State by state conditions ratings in IL (-2), MN(-3), IA (-4), and IN (-6) were all lower. Of the major states, NE (+1) and OH (+5) were higher. The Argentine peso weakened on Monday and again on Tuesday, reaching more than 58 to the dollar before firming into the close. --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are 3 to 6 cents higher this morning in all three markets. They ended Tuesday down 5 to 9 cents in the KC and MPLS contracts, with CBT SRW 2 cents higher in nearby Sept. The nearby CBT-KC spread widened to 88 1/2 cents. On Monday, USDA added 25 mbu to the new crop export projection at 975 mbu, as well as a 20 mbu increase to feed and residual. Those were not enough to offset the jump in production as ending stocks were up 14 mbu. USDA also cut the average farm price by 20 cents to $5.00. Despite the downward revisions, USDA is still expecting world wheat production to be 768 MMT this year vs. 730 MMT last year. Ukraine was emphasized in some USDA commentary, up 4 MMT from last month. Argentina’s peso slipped 15% against the US dollar on Monday and was weaker again on Tuesday. --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures posted limit losses in the front months on Tuesday after a morning short covering rally fizzled. Feeder cattle futures were down as much as $6.75 on Tuesday, the expanded daily limit. Both will see expanded limits again today. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down $1.02 cents on August 12 at $140.08. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher Tuesday afternoon. The Choice boxes were up $7.74 at $226.36, with Select boxes higher $2.79 @ $200.58. The Chc/Sel spread widened to $25.78, the highest point since June 2017. USDA estimated the week to date FI cattle slaughter at 231,000 head, down 6,000 head from the previous week and 5,000 head below the same week last year. Cash action has yet to be reported this week but is expected to be lower due to the lower kill capacity in Kansas. Wednesday’s FCE auction has 462 head on the showlist. --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures saw 75 cent to $2.50 losses on Tuesday, with soon to expire Aug down 17.5 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 58 cents at $81.75. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 98 cents on Tuesday afternoon at $89.21. Bellies were $1.58 lower on Tuesday, the first decline in four days. The national average base hog value was rose $1.26 cents in the Tuesday report at $70.01. Estimated FI hog slaughter for week to date was 938,000 head, a 34,000 head increase from the previous week and 1,000 head more the same week a year ago. ---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are mostly 15 to 18 lower this morning, with nearby October 4 points higher. They had 100 to 143 point gains in most contracts on Tuesday. President Trump is delaying implementation of the 10% tariffs on some Chinese goods until December, with a few proposed categories waived entirely. There are hopes that the Chinese will reciprocate, but US stock market futures are down sharply this morning. Monday’s monthly update to the US cotton balance sheets showed a 280,000 bale reduction to 18/19 exports at 14.22 million bales. New crop projections show a 200,000 bale jump to new crop shipments at 17.2 million bales. USDA also dropped the average farm price projection by 3 cents to 60 cents/lb. On Monday, condition ratings by state saw TX up 11 points on the Brugler500 index, with GA down the same. The Cotlook A was down .65 points on August 12 at 70.35 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 52.67 cents/lb, through Thursday. --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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Phone: 402-697-3623
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