U.S. Dollar at 10 Month Lows

July 17, 2017


S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures on Friday advanced to new record highs.

Stock index futures are firm today due to news that China reported a 6.9% second quarter gross domestic product growth rate on the year, surpassing expectations. Economists expected 6.8% growth in the April to the June period.

The July New York Federal Reserve manufacturing index was 9.8, which compares to expectations of 15.

So far, of the 6% of S&P 500 companies that have reported second quarter earnings, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations.

The main trend for stock index futures is higher.


The U.S. dollar fell to a 10 month low, as interest rate differentials remain unfavorable to the greenback.

Longer term it appears that lower prices are likely for the U.S. dollar.

The euro currency remains near 14 month highs.

The euro is a little higher today even though euro zone June inflation data was roughly in line with expectations at 1.3%. This substantially below the European Central Bank’s target of just below 2%.

Speculation remains that the European Central Bank could announce plans to wind down its quantitative easing program at its September 7 policy meeting.

The main trend for the currency of the euro zone is higher.

The Australian dollar is firm due to the stronger than expected Chinese gross domestic product report.


Futures are narrowly mixed, although there was some support due to the weaker than anticipated New York Federal Reserve manufacturing index.

According to financial futures markets there is only a 3% probability that the Federal Reserve will increase its funds rate at the July 26 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

The probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will increase its fed funds rate at the December 13 meeting is 48%, which is unchanged from Friday.

The long term fundamentals for futures are mixed.


September 17 S&P 500

Support 2451.00 Resistance 2462.00

September 17 U.S. Dollar Index

Support 94.740 Resistance 95.190

September 17 Euro Currency

Support 1.14660 Resistance 1.15260

September 17 Japanese Yen

Support .88840 Resistance .89320

September 17 Canadian Dollar

Support .78880 Resistance .79290

September 17 Australian Dollar

Support .7791 Resistance .7838

September 17 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support 152^0 Resistance 153^6

August 17 Gold

Support 1224.0Resistance 1239.0

September 17 Copper

Support 2.6800 Resistance 2.7400

August 17 Crude Oil

Support 46.03 Resistance 46.88

For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

Would you like to open an account with us? Go to our interactive New Account application at Open an Account. It is fast, saves on postage and it’s green.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.