AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn futures are trading mostly 2 cents higher this morning. They finished yesterday 3 to 4 1/4 cents in the green. Analysts are expecting this morning’s USDA Export Sales report to show 200,000-500,000 MT of old crop sales, with 200,000-400,000 MT in new crop sales. EIA ethanol production for the week of July 21 was down 14,000 barrels per day from the previous week to 1.012 million bpd. Assuming a 2.8 gallon/bushel yield, total corn usage for ethanol is now at 5.017 billion bushels for the 16/17 marketing year. Ethanol stocks were reported at 21.529 million barrels, down 608,000 barrels from last week, as the Midwest and Rockies were the only regions to see an increase.


Soybean futures are currently 5 cents in the green, after being mostly 6 to 7 3/4 cents higher on Wednesday on a dead cat bounce. Front month soy meal was up $1.50/ton, with Aug 17 soy oil 23 points higher. The weekly Export Sales report will be released this morning at 7:00 a.m. CST, with traders estimating 100,000-300,000 MT in 16/17 sales with 300,000-1,000,000 MT in 17/18 sales. Total soy meal export sales are expected to be 50,000-225,000 MT, with soy oil in the range of 5,000-25,000. The Brazilian Real has gained nearly 8.4% since the mid-May’s selloff. Argentine soybean crush during June was 3.9 MMT, 15% lower than May and down 5% from June 2016. Chinese soy oil reserves are at 1.4 MMT, 6.4% larger over the previous month and 14.8% above the previous year.


Wheat futures are mostly 3-5 cents higher this morning, with some MPLS contracts up 7 cents. They posted fractional to 4 1/2 cent gains in most KC and CBT contracts on Wednesday, with MPLS 10 to 13 cents higher in the nearby contracts. Ahead of today’s Export Sales report, traders are expecting 17/18 wheat export sales to be in the range of 350,000-550,000 MT, as last week’s report show sales blowing by analysts’ estimates. The Spring wheat tour is currently underway, with final results expected Thursday. The Day 2 average was 35.8 bpa vs. 46.9 last year and the 5-year average of 46.8.


Live cattle futures were mostly 12.5 to 62.5 cents higher yesterday, with Aug up $1.125. Feeder cattle futures were mixed, with Aug a nickel lower and the back months higher. The CME feeder cattle index was unchanged from the previous day at $151.57 on July 5. Wholesale beef prices were lower in the afternoon report, with choice boxes down 55 cents at $207.07 and select $1.06 lower at $197.87. Estimated FI cattle slaughter through Wednesday was 349,000 head, 2,000 head above last week and 12,000 head larger than same week last year. The FCE online auction saw 772 of the 2,119 head sold at an average price of $117.68, 59 cents lower than last week. Sales ranged from $117.50 to $118.25. There were a few cash sales at $117 reported in the North later in the day.

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures ended Wednesday with most contracts 12.5 to 80 cents in the green. The CME Lean Hog Index for 7/24 was 69 cents lower than the previous day at $90.44. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $1.82 lower in the Wednesday afternoon report, with a weighted average of $100.58. The belly was the only cut higher. The national base hog carcass price was 32 cents lower with a weighted average of $81.75. Week to date FI hog slaughter was estimated at 1,300,000 head, 1,000 head more than the previous week and 12,000 over the same week in 2016.


Cotton futures are showing strong gains this morning, after settling Wednesday with losses of 30 to 53 points. The Federal Reserve announced no changes to short term interest rates yesterday, as expected. The US dollar turned 606 points lower on the day after the announcement. The Cotlook A index for July 25 was 15 points lower at 84.50 cents/lb. The Seam reported cash sales of 306 bales at an average price of 69.59 cents/lb. On Wednesday, China sold 16,700 MT of the total 29,700 MT offered at an auction of state reserves.

Market Commentary provided by:

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